GM Volt - Do the numbers really add up?

When I first heard about GM's electric vehicle, the Volt, I was very excited - there would finally be a mass produced all electric car (at least for the first 40 miles) on the market. As a Prius driver I love the high mileage we get and always look forward to a day when we're not putting any gas in the car.

Along with driving all electric for the first 40 miles, the Volt also has the benefit of looking like a normal car. Although my wife loves the Prius' look, I have to admit it took a while to grow on me. And any acceptance I have could be attributed to glee from our nearly non-existent fuel costs.

Recently GM released actual information on the Volt, including its cost and MPG (after the initial 40 miles of gas free driving). The question is; could the Volt be as or even more economical than the Prius?

Now obviously trading in a car for a gas friendlier car doesn't always makes sense, so I approached the situation is as if our second car died and we had the option to buy new without a trade-in.

Interestingly enough Honda recently announced the new Insight, which is also a hybrid. Unfortunately looks a lot like the Prius and gets slightly lower gas mileage, but it also costs less. I was curious to see how the new Insight compares with the Prius and Volt.

So the real question is; which costs less over time when factoring in the purchase price and mileage (not including cost of electricity)?


Specs on the cars:

Volt
Price: $40,000 (est. from GM)
EV Range: 40 miles
Mileage (after ev range): 50 mpg (US est.)

Notes: there is a $7,500 tax credit on the Volt, though the number of credits available is limited (similar to the hybrid credit a few years back).


Prius
Price: $25,000 (equiped)
EV Range: 0 miles
Mileage: 48 mpg (US)

Notes: the Prius is listed as 48 mpg US on the Toyota site, we generally get 50 - 55 mpg US (we do not live a flat warm area, which means others are probably getting much higher), but I used Toyota's mpg for all calculations.


Insight
Price: $20,000 (est. from Car and Driver was $19,000 base with nothing in it)
EV Range: 0 miles
Mileage: 42 mpg (US est.)

Notes: fairly stripped down (similar to Civic), unlikely to come with traction control, full compliment of airbags, and nice audio system, without stepping well into the $20K - $22K range. Also could have smaller interior room than other two cars (seems to compare with Civic, where the Prius and presumably the Volt have interior space similar to the Camry and Accord).



In my calculations I gave the Volt every advantage, and the benefit of the doubt wherever possible. For instance I assumed we got the tax credit, assumed we drove exactly 40 miles a day (which means the Volt uses NO gas and the Prius and Insight both do), assumed driving 6 days a week to increase the payback on the Volt, and ignored the cost of charging the Volt.

Now before you stop reading because of my bias towards the Volt, rest assured I did this for a reason; because the Volt still cost far more than either of the other two.


The following is a quick comaprison of the payback when comparing the cars:

Driving: 40 miles 6 days a week
Gas price: $5.00/gallon

Volt -vs- Prius
Volt cost difference: $7,500 (after tax credit)
Volt gas savings per year: $1300
Years to make back cost difference: 5.8 years

Volt -vs- Insight
Volt cost difference: $12,500 (after tax credit)
Volt gas savings per year: $1560
Years to make back cost difference: 8 years

Prius -vs- Insight
Prius cost difference: $5,000
Prius gas savings per year: $260
Years to make back cost difference: 19 years



And the numbers only get worse when factoring in the electricity to charge the Volt, missing out on the tax credit, and more regular day-to-day driving (do you really drive 40 miles every weekend?).

So would I buy a Volt? No, the cost is way too high. The Volt steps well into the price range of luxury cars, but only seems to offer up a Chevy Malibu with minimal gas savings when compared to other hybrids.

Also of concern is the cost if anything goes wrong. I mean the car costs $10K - $15K more than it should for a reason - the new battery and power plant system. So would I need to spend $10K - $15K on repairs in the future?

I do hope the Volt sells well enough to help bring down the price - ideally starting under $28K, but until then I'll have to pass.

Would I buy an Insight? Possibly, it really depends on how well equipped the base model is. Around here we get snow and ice during the winter, so I always buy cars with traction control. Also I'm very safety aware and generally opt for a car with high safety ratings and more airbags. If the Insight can stack up to the Prius in those features for less, then it sounds like a great deal to me.

Would I buy another Prius? Yes, but I'd prefer to buy a different Prius, not the exact same car - variety is good. If the new Prius (announced recently) has better gas mileage, ideally the plugin capability Toyota keeps talking about (some mod-shops claim +100 mpg with custom plugin Prius'), and for around the same price, then yes that sounds great.


Luckily I don't need to buy a car right now - with so many new products on the horizon, I'm glad I can wait and see what cars are available down the road.

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More numbers; for anyone curious here are more stats using the same assumptions, but using gas cost of $8/gallon instead:

Driving: 40 miles 6 days a week
Gas price: $8.00/gallon

Volt -vs- Prius
Volt cost difference: $7,500 (after tax credit)
Volt gas savings per year: $2080
Years to make back cost difference: 3.6 years

Volt -vs- Insight
Volt cost difference: $12,500 (after tax credit)
Volt gas savings per year: $2496
Years to make back cost difference: 5 years

Prius -vs- Insight
Prius cost difference: $5,000
Prius gas savings per year: $416
Years to make back cost difference: 12 years


And assuming you missed out on the Volt tax credit:

Volt -vs- Prius
Volt cost difference: $15,000
Volt gas savings per year: $2080
Years to make back cost difference: 7.2 years

Volt -vs- Insight
Volt cost difference: $20,000
Volt gas savings per year: $2496
Years to make back cost difference: 8 years