Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Prius maintaining incredible value

I recently checked out prices for certified pre-owned Toyota Prius', and was astonished by what I found. Not only are prices high on more recent models, but even four year old Prius' are maintaining nearly all of their original value.

To clarify a bit, I'm not looking for a new car, and we already have a Prius. However we've received a number of buyback offers from various dealers in the area and I was curious what a dealer certified pre-owned Prius actually goes for.

So how much are you looking at for a certified pre-owned Prius? Well assuming you can even find one - there are only 12 in a one hundred mile radius of our area, and 5 within twenty-five miles - anywhere from $20,000 to $29,000 (obviously prices depend on your area).

As an example I found the same year Prius we currently own with the same options (not difficult as that year only had three packages; none, esp, satnav):

2004 Toyota Prius (with esp)
Miles: 38,000
Price: $20,000

And what did we pay for it brand new, four years ago, right off the lot with no miles? $24,000

Even crazier:

2005 Toyota Prius (with esp)
Miles: 45,000
Price: $23,000

Obviously we wouldn't get anywhere near this in a buyback, but regardless the car is holding incredible value. And this on top of the gas savings... wow.

So what about the $29,000 Prius:

2008 Toyota Prius
Miles: 9,000
Price: $29,000

Well even used it seems to be going for over MSRP.

While this is great for us, already owning a Prius, it must be difficult to find one at a reasonable price.

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Will taxing businesses affect us all?

Of course being election year many discussions revolve around the two candidates' tax plans. I have no interest in pitching one tax plan over the other, both have their merits, and both their weaknesses. Nor do I support either candidate (see my previous blog "Why, McCain, Why?" for details).

I'm only here to dispel one myth; the notion that raising taxes for big businesses does not affect us, the little people.


This belief, that we're somehow insulated from the effects of taxing big business, is flawed and very dangerous. It's unfortunate but business expenses, unlike wealth, do trickle-down to us, the everyday people.


So how will raising taxes for big businesses affect us?

Simply put; increased business expenses and taxes, raise the cost of goods and can lower wages.

Increased expenses and taxes cut-into profits and can cause businesses to operate at a loss. Obviously businesses will combat this. Not only is operating at a loss not sustainable, but during times of hardship businesses need to work even harder to protect their profits - to keeps us employed and paid, and keep delivering products to us, the consumers.

To compensate for increased expenses and taxes businesses generally:

  • Increase the price of goods (increases the profit margin, presumably to near or at the previous level)
  • Reduce wages (for part time or hourly workers this can mean reduced $/hour and/or hours, for all of us it means no increase in wages or bonuses)
  • Reduce work force (laying off full timers and eliminating part timers)

Streamlining business operations outside of those listed above are also an option, however this often takes both money and time to pull off, two things businesses are short of during hard times. Where as cutting wages, hours, and jobs is much easier and has immediate results.


How bad will it get?

At best we will get hit with much higher prices on the things we buy; groceries, clothing, electronics, cars, ..., in fact we're already seeing this as energy costs rises. And with increased taxes thrown in these prices will rise even faster and further than they are now.

In a way the price increases are like being indirectly taxed. The everyday people and small businesses who are not directly taxed, are indirectly paying for the tax hike by paying more for the things they need.

More than likely we'll also be hit in some way by reduced wages, job losses, or, at the very least, no increase in our wages. And right when we need money the most, as we face higher prices on the things we buy.


So who's really getting taxed?

With most of the tax burden and increased expenses passed off onto us, the consumer and employees, who is really getting taxed, the big businesses or us?

Sunday, October 19, 2008

GM Volt - Do the numbers really add up?

When I first heard about GM's electric vehicle, the Volt, I was very excited - there would finally be a mass produced all electric car (at least for the first 40 miles) on the market. As a Prius driver I love the high mileage we get and always look forward to a day when we're not putting any gas in the car.

Along with driving all electric for the first 40 miles, the Volt also has the benefit of looking like a normal car. Although my wife loves the Prius' look, I have to admit it took a while to grow on me. And any acceptance I have could be attributed to glee from our nearly non-existent fuel costs.

Recently GM released actual information on the Volt, including its cost and MPG (after the initial 40 miles of gas free driving). The question is; could the Volt be as or even more economical than the Prius?

Now obviously trading in a car for a gas friendlier car doesn't always makes sense, so I approached the situation is as if our second car died and we had the option to buy new without a trade-in.

Interestingly enough Honda recently announced the new Insight, which is also a hybrid. Unfortunately looks a lot like the Prius and gets slightly lower gas mileage, but it also costs less. I was curious to see how the new Insight compares with the Prius and Volt.

So the real question is; which costs less over time when factoring in the purchase price and mileage (not including cost of electricity)?


Specs on the cars:

Volt
Price: $40,000 (est. from GM)
EV Range: 40 miles
Mileage (after ev range): 50 mpg (US est.)

Notes: there is a $7,500 tax credit on the Volt, though the number of credits available is limited (similar to the hybrid credit a few years back).


Prius
Price: $25,000 (equiped)
EV Range: 0 miles
Mileage: 48 mpg (US)

Notes: the Prius is listed as 48 mpg US on the Toyota site, we generally get 50 - 55 mpg US (we do not live a flat warm area, which means others are probably getting much higher), but I used Toyota's mpg for all calculations.


Insight
Price: $20,000 (est. from Car and Driver was $19,000 base with nothing in it)
EV Range: 0 miles
Mileage: 42 mpg (US est.)

Notes: fairly stripped down (similar to Civic), unlikely to come with traction control, full compliment of airbags, and nice audio system, without stepping well into the $20K - $22K range. Also could have smaller interior room than other two cars (seems to compare with Civic, where the Prius and presumably the Volt have interior space similar to the Camry and Accord).




In my calculations I gave the Volt every advantage, and the benefit of the doubt wherever possible. For instance I assumed we got the tax credit, assumed we drove exactly 40 miles a day (which means the Volt uses NO gas and the Prius and Insight both do), assumed driving 6 days a week to increase the payback on the Volt, and ignored the cost of charging the Volt.

Now before you stop reading because of my bias towards the Volt, rest assured I did this for a reason; because the Volt still cost far more than either of the other two.


The following is a quick comaprison of the payback when comparing the cars:

Driving: 40 miles 6 days a week
Gas price: $5.00/gallon

Volt -vs- Prius
Volt cost difference: $7,500 (after tax credit)
Volt gas savings per year: $1300
Years to make back cost difference: 5.8 years

Volt -vs- Insight
Volt cost difference: $12,500 (after tax credit)
Volt gas savings per year: $1560
Years to make back cost difference: 8 years

Prius -vs- Insight
Prius cost difference: $5,000
Prius gas savings per year: $260
Years to make back cost difference: 19 years




And the numbers only get worse when factoring in the electricity to charge the Volt, missing out on the tax credit, and more regular day-to-day driving (do you really drive 40 miles every weekend?).

So would I buy a Volt? No, the cost is way too high. The Volt steps well into the price range of luxury cars, but only seems to offer up a Chevy Malibu with minimal gas savings when compared to other hybrids.

Also of concern is the cost if anything goes wrong. I mean the car costs $10K - $15K more than it should for a reason - the new battery and power plant system. So would I need to spend $10K - $15K on repairs in the future?

I do hope the Volt sells well enough to help bring down the price - ideally starting under $28K, but until then I'll have to pass.

Would I buy an Insight? Possibly, it really depends on how well equipped the base model is. Around here we get snow and ice during the winter, so I always buy cars with traction control. Also I'm very safety aware and generally opt for a car with high safety ratings and more airbags. If the Insight can stack up to the Prius in those features for less, then it sounds like a great deal to me.

Would I buy another Prius? Yes, but I'd prefer to buy a different Prius, not the exact same car - variety is good. If the new Prius (announced recently) has better gas mileage, ideally the plugin capability Toyota keeps talking about (some mod-shops claim +100 mpg with custom plugin Prius'), and for around the same price, then yes that sounds great.


Luckily I don't need to buy a car right now - with so many new products on the horizon, I'm glad I can wait and see what cars are available down the road.

______________________________________


More numbers; for anyone curious here are more stats using the same assumptions, but using gas cost of $8/gallon instead:

Driving: 40 miles 6 days a week
Gas price: $8.00/gallon

Volt -vs- Prius
Volt cost difference: $7,500 (after tax credit)
Volt gas savings per year: $2080
Years to make back cost difference: 3.6 years

Volt -vs- Insight
Volt cost difference: $12,500 (after tax credit)
Volt gas savings per year: $2496
Years to make back cost difference: 5 years

Prius -vs- Insight
Prius cost difference: $5,000
Prius gas savings per year: $416
Years to make back cost difference: 12 years


And assuming you missed out on the Volt tax credit:

Volt -vs- Prius
Volt cost difference: $15,000
Volt gas savings per year: $2080
Years to make back cost difference: 7.2 years

Volt -vs- Insight
Volt cost difference: $20,000
Volt gas savings per year: $2496
Years to make back cost difference: 8 years

Saturday, October 18, 2008

Why McCain, Why?

To start, my wife and I seem to be on opposite ends of the political spectrum, at least thats the way it feels. Though she is a liberal and I consider my self conservative in truth we are both very moderate. It's really only little differences that divide us at times, and those differences only seem large for being the few points of contention between us. Still we lovingly call each other "the Republican" and "the Liberal" when talking politics (though we generally avoid the topic altogether).

When we found out McCain was running for president we both felt there was finally a moderate candidate, someone with a decent track record, and someone willing to turn away from his party's hardliners and reach across the isle. For once we found ourselves agreeing completely and even felt like we were making political decisions together, instead of using our one precious vote to negate the other's.

Then McCain started to change. In an effort to attract the hardcore conservatives, McCain aligned himself more and more with the far-right. Looking back this trend started a while ago, but really only became overly overt in the past year. Needless to say our support started to wane.

When McCain announced Palin as running mate I was curious. I thought having a female running mate might help temper McCain's sudden conservative streak, obviously I knew nothing about Palin at the time – now, several months later, the thought is just laughable (in a very sad way). To McCain's credit Palin does make him seem less conservative, but only relative to Palin herself, which really isn't helping.

So what now? Where is our moderate candidate now? Obviously my wife is now voting for Obama, who she views as the lesser of two evils. Unfortunately I have trouble voting for any "evils", so I'm not sure I can commit to either one.

I'm wondering how many moderates or even conservatives feel the same way? I also wonder which will hurt McCain more in the election; Obama's supporters, or lack of participation from alienated voters.

-Hank